Six useful forces that drive emerging technologies on a
path of change are: evolutionary technologies, rhymes of history, disruptive
technologies, science fiction, increasing returns, and Red Queens (Laureate
Education, 2009). Disruptive technologies, as one of these forces of change,
have become almost common language within the educational field. However, the
term disruptive innovation was coined by Clayton Christensen, which describes a
process by which a product or service start out at the bottom of a market and
then relentlessly moves up and displace established competitors (Clayton
Christensen, 2014). Dr. Christensen
explained in his media segment that disruptive innovation transforms a product
that was so historically expensive and complicated that only a few people with
a large amount of money and skill had access to it. A disruptive innovation
makes the technology much more affordable and accessible that a larger
population than before has access to it.
Second Life can be seen as an emerging disruptive technology that disrupts
expensive virtual world technologies and will most likely move up to the top of
the virtual communication market.
Technology or Innovation that Second Life Displaces
Second Life might have emerged from social networking
sites, and their accompanying social trends such as group chats and multiplayer
gaming. As an emerging technology, second
life not only disrupts virtual meeting technologies such as telepresence, but
also online discussion boards. Businesses from various industries are now
capitalizing on second life innovations, using them to eliminate travel cost
because they are able to connect live and direct via avatars within second life
environments.
Also, I think that cloud computing has opened the door for
the expansion of second life particularly where processing power is concerned.
This is because processing can now be carried out by numerous servers on server
farms. In other words, anyone connected to the internet these days can enter
second life environments with almost any type of device (computer, tablet,
smart phones or smart TVs).
Another emerging Technology Possibly during the Next 10 Years
In terms of possible future impact, I would say that second
life technology will most likely bring about both negative and positive impacts
to society. For example, maybe in the
future, online education will run live in second life environments. Maybe
face-to-face learning might dwindle because of the richness of second life in
the future, especially if second life evolves to the extent where the entire
environment becomes holographic and include digital senses technology such as
smell and touch. One negative
consequence to having an enhanced version of second life is that people might
spend too much time in their “second life” and not in the real world. Persons
with obsessive personalities may become addicted to the technology and end up
losing their sense of how to communicate in the real world.
References
Christensen,
C. (2002).The innovation
economy: How technology is transforming existing industries and creating new
ones[Video]. Retrieved from http://video.mit.edu/watch/the-innovation-economy-how-technology-is-transforming-existing-industries-and-creating-new-ones-9844/.
Clayton
Christensen. (2014).Disruptive Innovation. Retrieved from
http://www.claytonchristensen.com/key-concepts/#sthash.3nG7JD7E.dpuf.
Laureate
Education, Inc. (2009).Emerging
and future technology: Six forces that drive emerging technologies.Baltimore, MD: Author.
Six useful forces that drive
emerging technologies on a path of change are: evolutionary technologies,
rhymes of history, disruptive technologies, science fiction, increasing
returns, and Red Queens (Laureate Education, 2009). Kevin Kelly in his video
spoke about the Internet as only 5,000 days old, yet it has had a profound
impact on the world, bearing elements such as satellite images of the Earth,
laptops, wireless devices, making all that seemed impossible, possible (Kelly,
2007). I actually recalled life without
the Internet when I was a child living in Jamaica. The world seemed gigantic
and mysterious. Also, information was hard to come by. During those days, it
seemed as though only a few people knew how the world works, until the Internet
came into being and leveled the playing field where humanity has access to
endless information.
Yes indeed the future will be like the past, but with more
interesting technological gadgets (Laureate
Education, 2009). A
fine example, of this is the use of walkie talkies in the past which were
“cool” but not as interesting as smart phones in this era. Smart phones
themselves are on an evolutionary path. Thus, an example of the technology
which represents a rhyme in history is Google’s glasses. Google’s glasses can
be described as hands-free smart phones. See the following video for Google
glasses’ features:
Rhyme of History
The
Google glasses rekindle the 1960s psychedelic and surrealism art movements. Users
walk around in a virtual world, going beyond what ordinary humans see. See the
following link for more information on Google glasses based on users’
experiences: https://www.google.com/glass/start/explorer-stories/
Kelly pondered on what the next 5,000 days will be like
and concluded that there will be embodiment, restructuring and codependency on
the Internet. All these elements are reflected in Google glasses. Also, the
single global machine that Kelly spoke about can be seen as Siri in the future.
He also spoke about different kinds of dimensions which reminds me of the
Google glasses and how users seem to enter a new dimension once they put them
on. Many of us are already heavily depended on the Internet. I know I am, and
being able to carry around your smart phone entirely hands free sounds like a
technology that might very well stay with us for a while (until it evolves into
something more powerful). My reliance on
the Internet and my smart phone might eventually influence me into purchasing a
pair of Google glasses. This is how depended I am on the Internets. I went away
on vacation and ended up renting a personal hotspot for the entire time that I
was gone.
References
Kelly, K. (2007).Kevin
Kelly on the next 5,000 days of the Web[Speech].
Speech delivered at the EG 2007 Conference, Los Angeles. Retrieved from http://www.ted.com/talks/kevin_kelly_on_the_next_5_000_days_of_the_web.html
Laureate Education, Inc. (2009).Emerging and future technology: Six
forces that drive emerging technologies.Baltimore,
MD: Author.
